Article written

  • on 09.03.2015
  • at 10:28 PM
  • by KT

Cheltenham Festival 2015 Tips – Day 1 (Tuesday)

The wait is almost over… the 2015 renewal of the Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us and we can’t wait to hear the famous roar at 1:30!

We’ve returned excellent profits over the last couple of years, especially in 2013 where we tipped 12 winners from 27 races, including a 33/1 winner and a 974/1 4-timer on Gold Cup Day. We’d settle for anything close to that this time around so stay tuned for the best tips around.

Plus, don’t forget to follow us on Twitter @BigBettingBlog for more Cheltenham Festival news, tips, competitions and banter. Why not tweet us your selections/winners and we’ll RT a few of the best.

Day 1 is tough, so be sure to save some funds for some of the better things later in the week. Here’s to a enjoyable (and profitable!) 2015 Cheltenham Festival…


1:30 SkyBet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Willie Mullins has dominated the Cheltenham hurdle races in recent years, particularly with his novice hurdles, and this year’s Supreme could be no different. He saddles no fewer than 4 of the 12 expected to go to post but were focusing on two here. The Irish trainer has been quoted as saying DOUVAN (2/1) is ‘one of the nicest’ horses he’s sent to Prestbury Park and if that is anything to go by then the red-hot favourite really could be something special. He is our main selection, especially as we’ll get our money back from William Hill if he doesn’t manage to get home in front! We’re also taking a chance on Paul Townend’s mount SHANESHILL (12/1) to make the frame. He finished 2nd in the Champion Bumper here last year (tipped up by us) and placed horses in that race have a good record in the Supreme. Graham Wylie’s horse hasn’t been without his problems and comes here after a decent lay-off, but is most definitely worth an each-way punt at the price with Paddy Power, as we’ll get the win part our bet back if Douvan wins the race.

DOUVAN – 4pts Win @ 2/1 (William Hill) (Moneyback if loses)
SHANESHILL – 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 (Paddy Power) (Moneyback if Douvan wins)

Profile of recent winners:

  • Won last time out in the past 55 days
  • Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season; winning at least 50% of them
  • Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles
  • Finished in the first 4 in any Grade 1 hurdle
  • Won a bumper (or rated 86+ on the flat)
  • Finished in first 5 in 2014 Champion Bumper
  • Trained by Nicholls, Henderson or in Ireland (especially by Mullins!)

Best offers on the race:

Coral » 5/1 for Ruby Walsh to ride a winner during the Festival (£5 max, ALL customers)
Coral » Bet £20 on the Supreme, get £5 Free for every Walsh winner (existing customers)
Bet Victor » 6/1 for Mullins to have a winner on Day 1 (£5 max, NEW customers)
Paddy Power » 5/1 Douvan to win the Supreme  (£10 max, ALL customers)
Paddy Power » Losing bets refunded if Douvan wins Supreme (£50 max, ALL customers)
William Hill » Refund if your bet on the Supreme is a loser (£25 max, ALL customers)
SkyBet » Refund if your bet on the Supreme is a loser (£25 max, ALL customers)
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


2:05 Racing Post Arkle Chase

This race revolves around the odds-on favourite Un De Sceaux who has 7 victories from 8 starts (falling when 1/8 Fav in the remainder!). He is of course the one to beat, but is worth taking on with Paddy Power, who are refunding losing bets if Mullin’s star crosses the line first. That leads us to take an each-way chance on JOSSES HILL (12/1). Nicky Henderson’s runner hasn’t quite lived up to the hype as a Chaser just yet, but still boasts form figures of 112212 on good or good to soft ground over 2m, and a quick gallop might just bring out the best in him. He was 2nd to Vautour in last year’s Supreme under Andrew Tinkler, and with Barry Geraghty in the saddle here, is worth a small E/W gamble. Vibrato Valtat‘s form is difficult to judge as he has been turned over on three visits to Cheltenham thus far, but Nicholls’ runner can’t be ruled out on raw form alone.

JOSSES HILL – 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 (Paddy Power) (Moneyback if Un De Sceaux wins)

Profile of recent winners:

  • French bred aged 5 or 6, or Irish/British bred aged 7
  • Run in 2 to 5 chases this season
  • Never finished out of the first 2 over fences
  • Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts
  • Has won a Grade 1 or 2 chase
  • Finished in first 3 in a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle
  • Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
  • Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or first start here)
  • Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2014 Cheltenham Festival
  • Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs or David Pipe
  • From the first 5 in the betting (no bigger than 9/1)

Best offers on the race:

Paddy Power » Losing bets refunded if Un De Sceaux wins Arkle (£50 max, ALL customers)
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


2:40 Festival Handicap Chase

The first handicap of the 2015 Festival and they don’t come much more competitive than this. This would be a decent time to apply some trends and that leads us to 3 runners. Alan King’s novice NED STARK (10/1) is as decent place to start having won 4 of his 6 starts to date including a Grade 2 last time out, where the front 2 pulled clear of the rest. MENDIP EXPRESS (16/1) is another to watch having finished 2nd in the Becher Chase at Aintree and if running to that form would have as good a chance as any in this wide-open contest. Last but by no means least is ANNACOTTY (25/1) who battled well to win a Grade 3 handicap here back in January and could spring a surprise at a huge price.

NED STARK – 1pt E/W @ 10/1 (Paddy Power) (5 places)
MENDIP EXPRESS – 0.5pt E/W @ 16/1 (Bet Victor) (5 places)
ANNACOTTY – 0.5pt E/W @ 25/1 (SkyBet) (5 places)

Profile of recent winners:

  • Aged 7 to 10 (ideally 7 or 8)
  • Irish bred
  • Officially rated 129 to 145 (ideally rated 142 to 145)
  • Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
  • Won over 3M+
  • Won 1 to 3 times over fences
  • Has run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 2)
  • Won a class 3 or better handicap chase
  • Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+

Best offers on the race:

Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)

The following bookmakers are all paying 5 places on E/W bets on this race:
Bet365 » SkyBet » Bet Victor » William Hill »


3:20 CHAMPION HURDLE

The highlight of the day (if not the Festival!) as far as we are concerned, and the 4 market leaders all appear to have claims. Faugheen will be popular with punters, particularly if the Walsh/Mullins combo proves fruitful earlier on in the day, but we think it is worth taking on in such a competitive race, especially as 22 of the last 23 Christmas Hurdle winners have failed to win this race. Last year’s winner Jezki has been somewhat disappointing this season and The New One made hard work of seeing off Bertimont (150/1 for this!) at Haydock in January, albeit on heavy. But providing all eight go to post, we’re having an E/W play on the incredible HURRICANE FLY (10/1), who despite being 11-years-old has only 27 races on the clock after missing a couple of Festivals through injury and would bring the house down if he could manage to land his 23rd Grade 1 victory here!

HURRICANE FLY – 1pt E/W @ 10/1 (Paddy Power) (If all 8 run)

Profile of recent winners:

  • Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
  • Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
  • Run 2 to 4 times this season
  • 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2014 Champion Hurdle
  • Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
  • Finished in first 3 in 2014 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2014 Festival
  • Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle

Best offers on the race:

Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


4:00 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle

Yet another Willie Mullins short one to contend with here, and given his record in this race with Quevega (won 6 of 7 runnings) we would be brave to take on Annie Power here… but fortune favours the brave, so that is just what we’ll be! Glen’s Melody was caught close home by Quevega last year and may well be the ‘value’ bet, but we’re taking a chance on two bigger priced runners in the name(s) of CAROLE’S SPIRIT (20/1) and BITOFAPUZZLE (25/1). The former has 5 wins from 11 starts and hasn’t finished out of the places since her debut, and could run a big race once again. Meanwhile Harry Fry’s runner has won here already and boasts 5 wins and a 2nd from just 6 starts, improving with each and every visit to the racecourse.

CAROLE’S SPIRIT – 0.5pt E/W @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)
BITOFAPUZZLE – 0.5pt E/W @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)

Best offers on the race:

Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


4:40 National Hunt Chase

Wide open race for Amateur Riders and we’re taking an each-way chance on PERFECT GENTLEMAN (12/1). Cogry is an interesting runner too, but that could be said for 8 or 9 runners in this race, so bet sensibly!

PERFECT GENTLEMAN – 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 (Bet Victor)

Profile of recent winners:

  • Aged 7 or 8
  • Finished in first 2 last time in past 50 days
  • Run 4 to 8 times this season
  • Previously run in 3 to 9 chases
  • Has won a race over 3M+
  • Finished in the first 2 in a chase over 3M+
  • Made debut in a point to point, bumper or hurdle
  • Won or placed in a Newbury Chase over 2M 4F or further

Best offers on the race:

SkyBet » Paying 4 places on E/W bets.
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


5:15 Novices H’cap Chase

We’ve mainly gone for the trends in this race and that has drawn us to GORSKY ISLAND (25/1) at a big price. You could make a fair argument for most of the field, but the pick has won 2 of his last 3 runs and could well make the frame in the finale.

GORSKY ISLAND – 0.5pt E/W @ 25/1 (Bet Victor) (5 places)

Profile of recent winners:

  • Aged 7
  • Top weights have done well recently
  • Officially rated 137 or higher
  • Finished in first 2 last time (posting an RPR of 136+)
  • Run in 3 to 7 chases this season
  • Finished in first 3 on all completed chase starts this season
  • Won over 2M 4F or further
  • Run no more than 8 times over hurdles (won or placed in a class 1 hurdle)
  • Officially rated 125 or higher over hurdles
  • From the first 5 in the betting

Best offers on the race:

Bet Victor » Paying 5 places on E/W bets.
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


Huge thanks to CheltenhamTrends.co.uk for supplying us with all the stats and figures on the Cheltenham Festival.

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