Article written

  • on 10.03.2015
  • at 11:29 PM
  • by KT

Cheltenham Festival 2015 Tips – Day 2 (Wednesday)

Well what predictable start to the 2015 Festival; Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins spent most of the afternoon in the winner’s enclosure and we were returning healthy Cheltenham profits yet again! Some things never change…

Instead of chasing the short-priced Favs on Day 1, we opted to go for some bigger prices in the hope of landing some each-way money, and the gamble paid off as we landed winners at 2/1 and places at 12/1, 12/1, 10/1 and 25/1, to return a profit of 7.12pts; not bad given we decided to take on the short-priced Favs from the outset!

Follow us on Twitter @BigBettingBlog for more Cheltenham Festival news, tips, competitions and banter. Why not tweet us your selections/winners and we’ll RT a few of the best.

Here’s to a enjoyable (and profitable!) Day 2 at the 2015 Cheltenham Festival…


1:30 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle

Nichols Canyon looks to be the one to beat on raw form and will probably go off a lot shorter than the tissue price, but former flat horses have a poor record in the Neptune and we’re taking him on with VYTA DU ROC (7/1). Nicky Henderson’s runner was just touched off by Parlour Games in the Challow but we’re backing him to go one better this time. Beast Of Burden makes a big step up in grade and could be anything, whilst Outlander and Windsor Park will no doubt be popular with Irish punters!

VYTA DU ROC – 1pt E/W @ 7/1 (SkyBet)

Profile of recent winners:

  • 31 of the last 31 winners won or finished second last time out
  • 27 of the last 29 winners started in the first 5 in the betting
  • 16 of the last 18 win and placed horses started in the first 4 in the betting
  • 5 of the last 9 winners were won by the Irish
  • 6 of the last 16 winners recorded a top 6 finish in a Grade 1 bumper last spring
  • 14 of the last 16 winners were NH bred
  • Only 1 win aged over 6 since 1974
  • No winning 4 year-olds since 1991
  • All 14 Challow Hurdle winners to run have been beaten

Best offers on the race:

SkyBet » Refund if your bet on the Neptune is 2nd/3rd (£25 max, ALL customers)
Coral » Refunded bets if your horse is a faller.
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


2:05 RSA Chase

You could make a case for around 5 or 6 of these, but were sticking with David Pipe’s KING’S PALACE (4/1). His jumping has been superb since going chasing and with 4 Cheltenham wins already on his CV (2 hurdle, 2 chase) he could win this from the front. Younger horses have a poor record in this and if the selection has Don Poli and The Young Master under pressure coming up the hill then we could be in the money.

KING’S PALACE – 3pts Win @ 4/1 (Bet365)

Profile of recent winners:

  • The last 51 winners all ran in the same calendar year
  • The last 27 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
  • The last 15 winners had run at least 3 times over fences
  • 19 of the last 22 winners were novice hurdling the previous season
  • 4 of the last 6 winners ran well in the Dr P J Moriarty Chase
  • The last 12 winners finished placed at worst in a Grade 1 or 2 chase
  • 13 of the last 15 runnings were won by a 7 year-old
  • Look to prominently ridden horses
  • All 19 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase to run have been beaten
  • No winner aged 9+ since 1992
  • Only 3 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Only 2 of the last 22 winners were not traditionally bred
  • Just 1 ex-flat horse has placed since 1994

Best offers on the race:

Coral » Refunded bets if your horse is a faller.
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


2:40 Coral Cup

This race has been good to us over the last couple of years; in fact we have tipped up the last 2 winners – Medinas (33/1) in 2013, and Whisper (14/1) in 2014. Piecing the pieces together in order to solve the Coral Cup puzzle is not an easy task but one we’ll have a good go at!

Looking back at past trends is always a good place to start in these ultra-competitive handicaps and 2 that stand out are the ‘won earlier in season’ and ‘not won more than one handicap’ stats. BARADARI (18/1) fits the bill and could improve for the step in in trip.

Carrying weight hasn’t been too much of an issue in recent renewals (11-10 and 11-6 carried by the last 2 winners) and LAC FONTANA (20/1) contested Grade 1’s as a novice and also won the VO’B County Hurdle here last year. Another runner worth an each-way bet is ACTIVIAL (10/1) who finished 3rd in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, and that is often a good pointer for this.

ACTIVIAL – 0.5pt E/W @ 10/1 (Paddy Power)
BARADARI – 0.5pt E/W @ 18/1 (Bet Victor)
LAC FONTANA – 0.5pt E/W @ 20/1 (Bet Victor)

Profile of recent winners:

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 11 of the last 21 winners won last time out
  • 15 of the last 19 win and placed horses had run no more than 3 times that season
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had won no more than one handicap
  • 16 of the last 21 winners had won earlier in the season
  • 11 of the last 14 winners carried no more than 11st 2lb
  • The Betfair Hurdle, Ladbroke Hurdle & Boylesports.com Hurdle have been the best guides
  • Just 1 of 23 horses rated 150+ have won (last year)
  • Horses ages 10+ are 2-27 to place since 1999

Best offers on the race:

Coral » Refunded bets if your horse is a faller
Coral » 6 places on each-way bets
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)
The following bookmakers are all paying 5 places on E/W bets on this race:
Bet365 » SkyBet » William Hill »


3:20 QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

Whilst none of the market leaders have been without their problems, this promises to be an absolute cracker. SPRINTER SACRE (11/4) probably doesn’t need to show the outstanding class of old to take this, and even though it is a gamble, we’re hoping Nicky Henderson has him back to something like full fitness. We were right to side with Sire De Grugy in last year’s race, but again, his season hasn’t exactly been plain sailing. He was going well for a long way in the King George but didn’t stay the trip and faded badly.

SPRINTER SACRE – 2pts Win @ 11/4 (Coral)

Profile of recent winners:

  • 17 of the last 18 winners had run no more than 4 times that season
  • 32 of the last 33 winners started 11/1 or shorter
  • 12 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1
  • 11 of the last 12 defending champions that ran were beaten
  • 10 of the last 14 winners contested the Tingle Creek Chase
  • 19 of the last 30 winners had won at the Cheltenham Festival before
  • The last 12 winners ran during the same calendar year
  • 5 of the last 12 winners were Irish trained
  • Only 1 winner aged older than 10 since 1977

Best offers on the race:

Bet Victor » 10/1 for Sprinter Sacre to win (£5 max, NEW customers)
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


4:00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

This 3m7f Cross Country race is the marmite race of the Festival, but one we personally love. Balthazar King was our hero last year, but he gives it a swerve this time around in favour of another crack at the Grand National. Any Currency was the runner up last year but instead we’re taking a chance on DUKE OF LUCCA (13/2) who benefits from a 12lb swing with the former from last year’s race and was going well last time out until unseating Richard Johnson late on.

DUKE OF LUCCA – 1pt E/W @ 13/2 (Bet365)

Profile of recent winners:

  • 8 of the last 10 runnings have been won by the Irish
  • Enda Bolger has trained the winner or runner-up in 7 of the 10 runnings
  • 15 of the last 17 winners started in the first 3 in the betting
  • 26 of the 42 winners had won or placed over the Cheltenham Cross Country Course before
  • 7 of the last 10 winners contested the Cross Country Handicap at Cheltenham in December
  • Just 1 of the last 31 winners were making their debut over these obstacles
  • Only 2 of the 85 horses aged under eight to run over these obstacles have won

Best offers on the race:

Coral » Refunded bets if your horse is a faller.
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle

The Fred Winter is notoriously a tough race to call and this year is no different. GOLDEN DOYEN (20/1) boasts arguably the best form in the race, having chased home Top Notch (9/1 for the Triumph) last time out, and whilst capable, would have to shoulder top-weight. We’re also taking a chance on Paul Nicholls’ ALL YOURS (14/1) who was 2nd to Beltor in a Grade 2 last time out, whilst money for Gwencily Berbas would be interesting!

ALL YOURS – 0.5pt E/W @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)
GOLDEN DOYEN – 0.5pt E/W @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)

Profile of recent winners:

  • 7 of the 10 winners ran the bare minimum of 3 times over hurdles to get their handicap mark
  • 7 of the 10 winners were fillies (from a small representation)
  • 7 of the 10 winners were beaten on their last 2 hurdle starts
  • 18 of the last 28 win or placed horses were French bred of French imports
  • 8 of the 10 winners had run in the past 25 days
  • 3 of the 10 winners were the top rated flat horse
  • 3 of the 10 winners had won at Sandown earlier in the season
  • 3 of the last 8 winners beat older horses on their latest start

Best offers on the race:

Coral » Refunded bets if your horse is a faller.
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)


5:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper

The Champion Bumper is not a race to get heavily involved in, so bet sensibly. Willie Mullins has won this race eight times and saddles no fewer than 7 runners here and PYLONTHEPRESSURE (EDIT: now a N/R) could be his best chance of making it 3 wins in 4 years. Another Irish runner which catches the eye is SUPASUNDAE (14/1) who could also prove to be each-way value in the day’s finale.

SUPASUNDAE – 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Profile of recent winners:

  • 20 of the 22 winners won last time out
  • 12 of the 22 winners were unbeaten
  • 17 of the 22 winners were Irish trained
  • 15 of the 22 winners started in the first 6 in the betting
  • 6 of the last 14 winners did not run in the same calendar year (from a small representation)
  • 18 of the 22 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 16 of the 22 winners had won a bumper with 14 or more runners

Best offers on the race:

Coral » Refunded bets if your horse is a faller.
Bet365 » Back a winner at 3/1, get a free bet on next race (£25 max, ALL customers)
BetBright » Refund if your horse is 2nd to the Fav (£25 max)
The following bookmakers are all paying 4 places on E/W bets on this race:
Bet365 » SkyBet » William Hill » Paddy Power »


Huge thanks to CheltenhamTrends.co.uk for supplying us with all the stats and figures on the Cheltenham Festival.

  1. diy loom says:

    hi, very useful. thanks alot

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