Article written

  • on 22.06.2011
  • at 10:37 AM
  • by KT

Grand National Betting

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2013 GRAND NATIONAL PREVIEW

There is no doubt that the john Smith’s Grand National creates a betting buzz like so other sporting event in the world. The race is steeped in history and is the ultimate test of skill, experience and endurance, for both horses and jockeys alike.

The 30 fences that the horses must jump at Aintree are like no others, and simply getting around the 4m4f unscathed is an achievement in itself, let alone winning the prestigious race! Lottery was the first winner of the Grand National, but since then there have been countless other memories; none more so that the great Red Rum, who won the chase on three occasions (in 1973, 74 and 77) and remains the only horse to do so.

In 1981 jockey Bob Champion completed an amazing story onboard Aldaniti, having battled back from life-threatening cancer only two years earlier. But regularly picking the Grand National winner takes much more than choosing a horse based on it’s name or the colours of the jockey’s silks.

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2013 GRAND NATIONAL ODDS

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2013 GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS

Age

We haven’t had a 7 year-old winner for 72 years (Bogskar) and only 6 of the 38 runners aged 7 completed the course. 8-year-olds have struggled to in recent years, with only 1 winner (Bindaree in 2002) in the last 17 races.

Only only two teenagers have ever won the Grand National (last one in 1923) and they have never even placed since the 60s. So we are looking for horses aged 9-12, paying particular attention to 10 year olds (5 of last 10).

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Weight

In the last 52 runnings, only the great Red Rum has managed to win carrying more than 11st 5lbs.

In recent years however the horses at the top of the handicap have been grouped together much more closely. Don’t Push It won off 11st 5lbs by 5 lengths a couple of years ago, and recent runners-up have carried 11st 6lbs so we might well see that trend broken very soon.

8 of the last 10 carried between 10st 6lb and 11st 1lb.

So for now we will keep the 11st 5lbs limit trend going until it gets broken!

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Days since last run

The last 28 winners of the Grand National had all run within the previous 50 days of the race, highlighting that horses coming off a long lay-off struggle.

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Stamina

Since Gay Trip won the Grand National in 1970, every single winner had already won a chase over 3m or further. The Grand National is the longest race on the calendar and proven stamina is one of the most important qualities required from any potential winner.

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Form

In the last decade, all but one winner had won just one (or less) chases that season. So in terms of the trends we will be excluding any horse that has won two or more chases this season, as the chances are they will have been penalised too much and will be too far up the handicap in a highly competitive race such as this.

Make sure you look at the three most recent runs too, as all 10 of the winners from the last decade finished in the first 3 on at least one of those starts.

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Experience

8 of the last 10 winners had contested races over the Grand National fences before (either in the race itself or otherwise), suggesting that there is definitely an ‘Aintree Factor’.

Look for runners with good experience over fences in general too as the last 10 winners all contested at least 10 races over the larger obstacles and had between 3 and 6 runs since August.

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Official Rating

Since the weightings were bunched together more, those higher rated horses have much more of a chance and in the last 3 years, 11 of the 12 placing have come from horses carrying 144 or higher.

What’s more 7 of the last 10 were rated between 139 and 148 so pay close attention to the middle of the handicap.

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Irish-bred horses

Irish bred horses have the best record having won 9 of the last 10 races and filled in 28 of 40 places.

TRENDS SUMMARY:

– Aged between 9 and 12 (particularly 9-10 year-olds)
– Carrying between 10-6 and 11-5 (ideally less than 11-1)
– Ran withing last 50 days
– Won a chase of 3m or further
– Won no more than once this season and finished in first 3 on at least one of last 3 starts
– Raced at least 10 times over fences and had between 3 and 6 runs since August
– Rated between 139 and 154 (particular attention to 139-148)
– Irish-bred

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2013 GRAND NATIONAL TIPS

– TEAFORTHREE (E/W) @ 16/1 – 1pt E/W
– RARE BOB (E/W) @ 22/1 – 1pt E/W
– ROBERTO GOLDBACK (E/W) @ 25/1 – 0.5pt E/W
Bet Victor are paying 6 places on each-way bets.
Bet365, SkyBet and Paddy Power are paying 5 places on each-way bets.

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