Article written

  • on 02.04.2013
  • at 04:39 PM
  • by KT

2013 Aintree Grand National Meeting Trends

There’s much more to the Aintree Grand National meeting than the big race itself, including a range of stars on show in some of the Grade 1 races like the Aintree Hurdle and the Melling Chase.

Whilst some horses will come here fresh, others will be looking to follow up victories at the Cheltenham Festival. So to help you (and us!) find some winners we’ve picked out some of the major trends from the last few years as well as highlight some of the jockeys/trainers to both look out for, and in some cases, avoid.

Don’t forget to check out our Grand National page too to help you find the winner of the big race!

Figures used from the last 6 Aintree Grand National meetings and the 125 races ran over that period.

Skip To:
General Trends
Age »
Days Since Last Run »
Last Ran at Cheltenham Festival »
Trainers – HOT »
Trainers – COLD »
Jockeys – HOT »
Jockeys – COLD »
Trends by Race-Type
Non-Handiap Races »
Handicap Races »
Grade 1 Races »

Age

Only 2 of the 72 runners aged 12+ went on to win (2.8% Strike Rate)

It may not come as much of a shock that many older horses struggle in the latter part of the season but this age trend just highlights it. Of course this is one of many stats to consider when trying to find the winner, but choosing a ‘trusty old favourite’ may not always be wise, especially at this specific meeting.

It is worth noting that the two winners both came in the Foxhunters’ race which attracts older horses due to the nature of the event.

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Number of Days Since Last Run

Just 2 of the 64 horses running within 7 days of their last start made it into the Aintree Winner’s Enclosure (3.1% Strike Rate)

This one may seem obvious on the face of it too, as National Hunt horses often run better fresh, but you might be surprised at just how important this is here at Aintree. Of course horses can win after just a few days rest, but it is certainly rare at the back-end of a long season, as the 3% SR highlights.

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Last Ran at Cheltenham Festival

71 of the 125 races were won by horses who had their last start at the Cheltenham Festival (with a 9.9% Strike Rate)

Horses that ran at the Cheltenham don’t run well at Aintree, right?

Well perhaps that is a misconception as whilst some horses struggle to win at both Festivals, 71 of the 125 winners from the races we looked at (16 of 21 last year) had their last run at Prestbury Park.

Of course that came from over 700 runners but all we are saying is don’t believe the myth that Cheltenham runners don’t (or can’t) win at Aintree.

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Trainers – HOT

Here are some trainers that you should look out for at Aintree. Although there is no single trainer worth backing blindly, these certainly have an excellent record in recent years.

Paul Nicholls
17 winners from 156 runners (10.9% Strike Rate)
Of his winners:
– 16/17 ridden by Ruby Walsh
– 16/17 had their last start in a Class 1
– 15/17 were aged 8 or younger
– 15/17 started in the top 2 of the betting
– 14/17 finished in the first 4 LTO

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Nicky Henderson
16 winners from 122 runners (13.1% Strike Rate)
Of his winners:
– 16/16 had their last start between 20 & 32 days ago
– 14/16 were in Non-Handicaps
– 14/16 ran at Cheltenham LTO
– 13/16 winners came over 20f or under
– 12/16 ran in a Grade 1 race LTO
– 10/16 finished 1st or 2nd LTO
– 10/16 were ridden by Barry Geraghty
– 9/16 came in Novice events

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Alan King
9 winners from 59 runners (15.3% Strike Rate)
Of his winners:
– 9/9 had their last start at the Cheltenham Festival
– 9/9 had their last start within the past 28 days
– 9/9 were ridden by Robert Thornton
– 9/9 started in the top 5 of the market LTO
– 8/9 started in the top 3 of the betting
– 7/9 winners were in Non-Handicaps

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Jonjo O’Neill
8 winners from 55 runners (14.5% Strike Rate)
Of his winners:
– 8/8 came over 20f or further
– 8/8 did not start as Favourite LTO
– 7/8 were ridden by A P McCoy LTO
– 6/8 were ridden by A P McCoy
– 6/8 came in Handicaps

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Trainers – COLD

And whilst it pays to consider some trainers, these three should be treated with some caution…

Willie Mullins
0 winners from 37 runners (0% Strike Rate)
Been on fire at Cheltenham over recent seasons but Mullins has found winners in Liverpool hard to come by.

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Donald McCain
3 winners from 62 runners (4.8% Strike Rate)
The McCains have a great connection with the Grand National itself, but you might expect a better overall record from such a big stable.

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David Pipe
4 winners from 89 runners (xx% Strike Rate)
The Pipe yard is another of which you might expect a better strike rate than xx%.

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Jockeys – HOT

Like trainers and indeed horses, some jockeys seem to perform at one track but not another, Aintree is no different.

Ruby Walsh
17 winners from 98 runners (4.5% Strike Rate)
Of his winners:
16/17 started in the top 2 of the market
16/17 were trained by Paul Nicholls
14/17 were in Non-Handicap
10/17 had their last start at Cheltenham

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Barry Geraghty
11 winners from 61 runners (18% Strike Rate)
Of his winners:
11/11 had their last start between 23 & 32 days ago
11/11 had their last start at Cheltenham
10/11 had their last start in a Grade 1
10/11 came in Non-Handicap races
10/11 were trained by Nicky Henderson
9/11 started in the top 3 of the market
7/11 were in Novice events

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A P McCoy
10 winners from 82 runners (12.2% Strike Rate)
Of his winners:
8/10 had their last start at Cheltenham
7/10 were ridden by McCoy LTO

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Jockeys – COLD

Tom Scudamore
1 winner from 46 runners (2.2% Strike Rate)

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Aiden Coleman
1 winner from 36 runners (2.8% Strike Rate)

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Sam Thomas
0 winners from 23 runners (0% Strike Rate)

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Non-Handicap Races

Of the 81 Non-Handicap races at the Aintree Grand National meeting, the winners met the following trends:
– 75/81 had their last start in a Non-Handicap race
– 64/81 finished in the top 4 LTO
– 50/81 had their last start at Cheltenham
– 49/81 started in the front 2 of the betting
– 47/81 finished 1st or 2nd LTO

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Handicap Races

The winner of the 44 Handicap races at the past 6 Aintree Grand National meetings met the following criteria:
– 40/44 ran in a Handicap LTO
– Horses returning within 7 days of last run have a poor record (0/55)
– Horses returning after a break of 150+ days have a poor record (1/61)
– German and USA bred horses have a poor record with only 1 placing from 46
– The top 2 in the weights have only won 3 races from 97 runners

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Grade 1 Races

In the 37 Grade 1 races at the past 6 Aintree Grand National Meetings, there have been some eye-catching trends:
– 37/37 were Geldings
– 29/37 finished in the top 3 LTO
– 26/37 had their last start at Cheltenham
– 24/37 stared in the first 2 in the market

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As with any set of trends, it is best to use them as a guide to finding the winner but remember that trends can be broken!

What’s more, remember to look out for our daily Aintree tips and Grand National tips. We landed some huge priced winners at Cheltenham (33/1, 14/1, 9/1 etc) so lets hope for more of the same!

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